From LessWrong.com:Followup to: You be the jury: survey on a current event
All three of them clearly killed her. The jury clearly believed so as well which strengthens my argument. They spent months examining the case, so the idea that a few minutes of internet research makes [other commenters] certain they're wrong seems laughable
- lordweiner27, commenting on my previous post
The short answer: It's very much like how a few minutes of philosophical reflection trump a few millennia of human cultural tradition.
Wielding the Sword of Bayes -- or for that matter the Razor of Occam -- requires courage and a certain kind of ruthlessness. You have to be willing to cut your way through vast quantities of noise and focus in like a laser on the signal.
But the tools of rationality are extremely powerful if you know how to use them.
